Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.014931 0.016902 0.019053 0.021577 0.024462 0.027659 0.031478
2024-10-20 0.011565 0.014179 0.017281 0.021247 0.026201 0.032206 0.040072
2024-10-27 0.009506 0.012280 0.015761 0.020472 0.026718 0.034763 0.045991
2024-11-03 0.008626 0.011639 0.015598 0.021219 0.029057 0.039688 0.055351
2024-11-10 0.007896 0.011058 0.015382 0.021782 0.031107 0.044338 0.064789
2024-11-17 0.007292 0.010555 0.015180 0.022283 0.033049 0.048963 0.074654
2024-11-24 0.006577 0.009803 0.014519 0.022006 0.033759 0.051780 0.082038
2024-12-01 0.005995 0.009177 0.013966 0.021803 0.034515 0.054683 0.089812
2024-12-08 0.005502 0.008635 0.013477 0.021629 0.035262 0.057596 0.097873
2024-12-15 0.005225 0.008401 0.013439 0.022160 0.037191 0.062602 0.110032
2024-12-22 0.004831 0.007938 0.012984 0.021942 0.037808 0.065418 0.118602
2024-12-29 0.004654 0.007816 0.013077 0.022656 0.040099 0.071359 0.133548
2025-01-05 0.004216 0.007224 0.012334 0.021858 0.039644 0.072386 0.139479
2025-01-12 0.003899 0.006813 0.011872 0.021521 0.040004 0.074961 0.148769
2025-01-19 0.003547 0.006311 0.011204 0.020735 0.039423 0.075660 0.154316
2025-01-26 0.003452 0.006263 0.011350 0.021493 0.041899 0.082576 0.173639
2025-02-02 0.003337 0.006169 0.011399 0.022064 0.044054 0.089067 0.192872
2025-02-09 0.003221 0.006065 0.011418 0.022572 0.046125 0.095595 0.213026
2025-02-16 0.003021 0.005779 0.011065 0.022291 0.046509 0.098567 0.225416
2025-02-23 0.002846 0.005530 0.010762 0.022085 0.047029 0.101882 0.239022
2025-03-02 0.002688 0.005303 0.010485 0.021908 0.047591 0.105337 0.253406
2025-03-09 0.002615 0.005242 0.010540 0.022447 0.049807 0.112802 0.278761
2025-03-16 0.002473 0.005027 0.010261 0.022226 0.050256 0.116174 0.294089